NBA Preview Series: Portland Trail Blazers

Last Year
54-28 (T-5th in NBA)
OFF: 108.3 (5th)
DEF: 104.7 (16th)
NET: 3.5 (8th)

Projected Rotation (Projected WS/48)

Starters
PG - Damian Lillard (.130)
SG - Wesley Matthews (.125)
SF - Nicolas Batum (.115)
PF - LaMarcus Aldridge (.139)
C - Robin Lopez (.158)

Reserves
SF - Dorell Wright (.110)
C - Chris Kaman (.048)
PG - Steve Blake (.067)
SG - C.J. McCollum (.038)
PF - Thomas Robinson (.058)

Quick Thoughts:
Mid-range shooting is a lost art in today's NBA, abandoned by most teams because it's an inefficient shot. LaMarcus Aldridge and Dirk Nowitzki are widely considered exceptions to that rule, but they really aren't in the same class when it comes to actually converting on this shot. Per NBA.com:

Aldridge

Season	FG-MR	FGA-MR	FG%-MR
2007-08	379	899	.422
2008-09	323	753	.429
2009-10	206	494	.417
2010-11	232	564	.411
2011-12	263	623	.422
2012-13	265	633	.419
2013-14	258	611	.422
Total	1926	4577	.421

Nowitzki

Season	FG-MR	FGA-MR	FG%-MR
2007-08	357	709	.504
2008-09	210	437	.481
2009-10	277	597	.464
2010-11	353	667	.529
2011-12	435	931	.467
2012-13	453	951	.476
2013-14	312	631	.494
Total	2397	4923	.487

Last season, among the 69 players who took at least 250 shots from mid-range, Dirk topped the list in field goal percentage from that area, while Aldridge finished 26th. So why was Portland's offense six points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor last season? Does the threat of his mid-range shot create better opportunities for his teammates? Or do his teammates' great shooting make him look better? What came first, the chicken or the egg? When you dig into the numbers, it's hard to find a conclusive answer. According to NBA.com's lineup data, each of the Blazers' starters performs better when Aldridge is on the court, and Aldridge performs better when each of the others are on the court. And, since the Blazers starting five was the second-most used lineup in the NBA, the sample for any off court numbers are pretty small. Whatever (or whoever) the reasons are, we do know that this is a dynamite offensive group, good enough that Portland should again play in the postseason.

Player to Watch: Nicolas Batum
Two years ago, the Blazers drafted Damian Lillard and immediately plugged him in as their starting point guard. Terry Stotts, the new Head Coach at the time, decided to start using Batum as more of a point forward, allowing Lillard to thrive as a scoring guard. As a results, his statistical profile changed dramatically:

Season	AST%	TOV%	USG%	WS/48
2008-09	7.8	11.5	14.0	.123
2009-10	8.0	8.5	16.4	.181
2010-11	8.1	8.6	17.8	.126
2011-12	7.9	11.2	20.5	.127
2012-13	20.3	17.0	18.2	.099
2013-14	20.9	18.6	16.5	.128

With the ball in his hands more often, Batum saw a significant spike in his assist and turnover rates while his usage rate began to decline. His overall production remained about the same, however. If he can cut his turnover rate closer to his career norms, he will experience the break through many think is possible at age 25.


Basketball-Reference.com Play Index:
Which qualified players had the highest offensive rating last season?

Rk	Player	Tm	MP	TS%	eFG%	ORB%	AST%	TOV%	USG%	ORtg	OWS	WS/48
1	Robin Lopez	POR	2603	.605	.551	13.6	4.2	10.1	14.0	128	7.0	.176
2	Chris Paul	LAC	2171	.580	.511	2.0	48.9	12.4	23.7	125	9.0	.270
3	Kevin Durant	OKC	3122	.635	.560	2.2	26.7	12.2	33.0	123	14.8	.295
4	Andre Drummond	DET	2619	.599	.623	17.5	2.2	10.7	16.7	121	6.4	.182
5	LeBron James	MIA	2902	.649	.610	3.6	32.0	14.4	31.0	121	12.3	.264
6	DeAndre Jordan	LAC	2870	.630	.676	13.3	3.7	15.3	12.4	121	5.3	.186
7	Jose Calderon	DAL	2468	.596	.584	1.4	22.4	11.7	16.2	120	5.4	.122
8	James Harden	HOU	2777	.618	.529	2.6	27.3	15.0	27.8	120	10.1	.221
9	Kevin Love	MIN	2797	.591	.524	8.5	21.4	10.3	28.8	120	10.6	.245
10	Dirk Nowitzki	DAL	2628	.603	.549	1.8	14.2	7.5	26.9	120	8.6	.199

Maybe Lopez is responsible?


Next up, the Los Angeles Lakers