Last Year
27-55 (25th in NBA)
OFF: 101.9 (21st)
DEF: 107.9 (28th)
NET: -6.0 (27th)
27-55 (25th in NBA)
OFF: 101.9 (21st)
DEF: 107.9 (28th)
NET: -6.0 (27th)
Projected Rotation (Projected WS/48)
Starters
PG - Steve Nash (.110)
SG - Kobe Bryant (.144)
SF - Wesley Johnson (.038)
PF - Carlos Boozer (.096)
C - Jordan Hill (.139)
PG - Steve Nash (.110)
SG - Kobe Bryant (.144)
SF - Wesley Johnson (.038)
PF - Carlos Boozer (.096)
C - Jordan Hill (.139)
Reserves
SG - Nick Young (.067)
PF - Julius Randle (-)
PG - Jeremy Lin (.106)
PF - Ed Davis (.134)
SG - Wayne Ellington (.086)
SG - Nick Young (.067)
PF - Julius Randle (-)
PG - Jeremy Lin (.106)
PF - Ed Davis (.134)
SG - Wayne Ellington (.086)
Quick Thoughts:
Head Coach Byron Scott recently told reporters about his desire to limit his team's three point attempts, saying he doesn't believe it wins championships. He'd like for his team to shoot between ten and fifteen three pointers per game, something only the Grizzlies have done in the last two years. But Memphis has been an elite defensive team in both seasons, and the Lakers project to be terrible on that end, perhaps the worst in the league. Is this a good offensive strategy then? First, let's ignore the fact that seven of the past eight champions led all playoff teams in three pointers, a stat tweeted out by Baxter Holmes and used by several writers. That's almost entirely a product of games played, and not really indicative of anything. Instead, let's look at how three point shooting correlates with offensive efficiency. I ran a linear regression comparing each team's offensive rating with their three point attempt rate (which is the percentage of field goal attempts that are threes). To give some context, I then did the same thing for several other of the common offensive factors, and did this going back to 2005. These are the R-squared values for each factor, which tells us how responsible each one is in predicting a team's offensive rating:
There is a lot of interesting information here, enough for a whole separate article. (Turnover rate has almost no impact on offensive efficiency today, when ten years ago it was more important than all the other factors combined!) When looking at three point attempts though, we see a volatile, yet upward, trend over the last decade. These numbers say nothing about actually making threes, but we do see that teams who shoot more of them generally have a better offense. So while jacking up a bunch of threes may not automatically make you a better offensive team, purposefully avoiding them puts a ceiling on how good you can be.
Player to Watch: Jordan Hill
Head Coach Byron Scott recently told reporters about his desire to limit his team's three point attempts, saying he doesn't believe it wins championships. He'd like for his team to shoot between ten and fifteen three pointers per game, something only the Grizzlies have done in the last two years. But Memphis has been an elite defensive team in both seasons, and the Lakers project to be terrible on that end, perhaps the worst in the league. Is this a good offensive strategy then? First, let's ignore the fact that seven of the past eight champions led all playoff teams in three pointers, a stat tweeted out by Baxter Holmes and used by several writers. That's almost entirely a product of games played, and not really indicative of anything. Instead, let's look at how three point shooting correlates with offensive efficiency. I ran a linear regression comparing each team's offensive rating with their three point attempt rate (which is the percentage of field goal attempts that are threes). To give some context, I then did the same thing for several other of the common offensive factors, and did this going back to 2005. These are the R-squared values for each factor, which tells us how responsible each one is in predicting a team's offensive rating:
| Season | FTr | 3PAr | ORB% | AST% | TOV% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004-05 | .049 | .174 | .001 | .109 | .413 |
| 2005-06 | .041 | .176 | .015 | .09 | .263 |
| 2006-07 | .033 | .290 | .060 | .062 | .321 |
| 2007-08 | .019 | .218 | .000 | .065 | .308 |
| 2008-09 | .057 | .118 | .056 | .015 | .135 |
| 2009-10 | .147 | .159 | .000 | .060 | .225 |
| 2010-11 | .126 | .242 | .021 | .031 | .266 |
| 2011-12 | .041 | .126 | .062 | .013 | .079 |
| 2012-13 | .258 | .374 | .001 | .035 | .001 |
| 2013-14 | .111 | .257 | .001 | .000 | .089 |
| Total | .040 | .166 | .001 | .000 | .206 |
There is a lot of interesting information here, enough for a whole separate article. (Turnover rate has almost no impact on offensive efficiency today, when ten years ago it was more important than all the other factors combined!) When looking at three point attempts though, we see a volatile, yet upward, trend over the last decade. These numbers say nothing about actually making threes, but we do see that teams who shoot more of them generally have a better offense. So while jacking up a bunch of threes may not automatically make you a better offensive team, purposefully avoiding them puts a ceiling on how good you can be.
Player to Watch: Jordan Hill
After getting a two year, $18 million contract this summer, Hill will take over for Pau Gasol as the Lakers starting center. His best skill is his rebounding, particularly on the offensive end. Since he entered the league in 2010, Hill owns the best offensive rebounding percentage in the NBA, according to Basketball-Reference.com. Hill is also a strong interior scorer, finishing with one of the best field goal percentages in both the restricted area and in the paint. Many questioned why the Lakers gave him so much money, but with a career high in minutes this season, he will be worth it.
Basketball-Reference.com Play Index:
Stats through age 34, which leaves out last season from Kobe and the Wizards years from Michael.
Regular Season:
Playoffs:
Sorry, I couldn't help myself.
BONUS SEGMENT:
The Lakers have quite a few interesting young big men, which makes their amnesty claim of Carlos Boozer scratch your head. Boozer is no longer a good player, a minus on both ends of the floor, and has been especially bad in the playoffs. These are the worst players who started at least 20 playoff games over the last three seasons:
He won't help the Lakers win, but he should at least provide some entertainment. Whether it's his hair, his catch phrases, or when he punches referees in the balls, Boozer always finds a place into your heart.
Next up, the Toronto Raptors
Basketball-Reference.com Play Index:
Stats through age 34, which leaves out last season from Kobe and the Wizards years from Michael.
Regular Season:
| Player | MP | TS% | eFG% | TRB% | AST% | STL% | BLK% | TOV% | USG% | WS | WS/48 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kobe Bryant | 45390 | .555 | .487 | 8.2 | 24.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 11.6 | 31.8 | 173.3 | .183 |
| Michael Jordan* | 35887 | .580 | .518 | 9.4 | 24.9 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 9.3 | 33.5 | 204.5 | .274 |
Playoffs:
| Player | MP | TS% | eFG% | TRB% | AST% | STL% | BLK% | TOV% | USG% | WS | WS/48 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kobe Bryant | 8641 | .541 | .480 | 7.4 | 23.3 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 11.0 | 31.0 | 28.3 | .157 |
| Michael Jordan* | 7474 | .568 | .503 | 9.3 | 28.2 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 9.4 | 35.6 | 39.8 | .255 |
BONUS SEGMENT:
The Lakers have quite a few interesting young big men, which makes their amnesty claim of Carlos Boozer scratch your head. Boozer is no longer a good player, a minus on both ends of the floor, and has been especially bad in the playoffs. These are the worst players who started at least 20 playoff games over the last three seasons:
| Player | GS | MP | TS% | TRB% | AST% | STL% | BLK% | TOV% | USG% | WS/48 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendrick Perkins | 50 | 1111 | .465 | 14.0 | 4.5 | 0.9 | 2.7 | 28.7 | 11.2 | .001 |
| Tayshaun Prince | 21 | 567 | .401 | 7.0 | 10.2 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 6.5 | 13.8 | .008 |
| Carlos Boozer | 23 | 752 | .491 | 16.7 | 10.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 15.1 | 24.5 | .033 |
| Paul Pierce | 38 | 1401 | .523 | 9.0 | 16.6 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 14.7 | 25.9 | .075 |
| Thabo Sefolosha | 44 | 982 | .491 | 7.8 | 9.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 10.2 | 12.0 | .075 |
| Lance Stephenson | 38 | 1390 | .508 | 11.8 | 18.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 16.1 | 17.9 | .076 |
| Shane Battier | 22 | 1362 | .536 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 8.5 | 10.9 | .084 |
| DeAndre Jordan | 30 | 835 | .569 | 18.4 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 6.0 | 18.4 | 11.6 | .084 |
| Mario Chalmers | 65 | 2004 | .537 | 5.7 | 18.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 16.4 | 16.4 | .086 |
| Zach Randolph | 28 | 1036 | .484 | 15.5 | 8.1 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 9.7 | 23.9 | .090 |
Next up, the Toronto Raptors
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