NBA Preview Series: Cleveland Cavaliers

Last Year
33-49 (22nd in NBA)
OFF: 101.3 (23rd)
DEF: 104.8 (17th)
NET: -3.5 (23rd)

Projected Rotation (Projected WS/48)

Starters
PG - Kyrie Irving (.120)
SG - Dion Waiters (.038)
SF - LeBron James (.278)
PF - Kevin Love (.221)
C - Anderson Varejao (.144)

Reserves
PF - Tristan Thompson (.096)
SG - Mike Miller (.115)
SF - Shawn Marion (.096)
PG - Matthew Dellavedova (.082)
SF - James Jones (.115)

Quick Thoughts:
Back in July, the great Ian Levy at Nylon Calculus looked into how LeBron's addition would change the Cavaliers offensive efficiency. He used a study by Eli Witus at Count the Basket which found that for every point of combined Usage Rate that a particular lineup has over 100%, they would increase their efficiency by about 0.25 points per 100 possessions (and vice versa). This makes some intuitive sense because (1) you can't use more than 100% of your own possessions and (2) as a player or team decreases their usage, their efficiency should go up (they take better shots, etc.). Levy took this study and applied it to the Cavaliers projected starting lineup at the time:

Player	USG%	ORtg
Irving	28.2	109
Waiters	26.9	99
James	31.0	121
Thompson	17.5	110
Varejao	14.6	114
	118.2	110.6

This group would need to reduce its Usage Rate by 18.2%, which by Witus' calculation means their Offensive Points Per 100 Possessions jumps to 115.4. Only two lineups that played at least 250 minutes last season had an Offensive Rating higher than that, both of them Clipper lineups (according to NBA.com). Since Levy posted that article, the Cavaliers made another big addition: trading for Kevin Love, who will replace Tristan Thompson as a starter:

Player	USG%	ORtg
Irving	28.2	109
Waiters	26.9	99
James	31.0	121
Love	28.8	120
Varejao	14.6	114
	118.2	112.6

In a lineup featuring four high usage players, Cleveland would need to decrease its overall Usage Rate by nearly 30%. Using the same math, this group would have an expected offensive rating that reaches 120, better than both of the aforementioned Clipper lineups. There are a lot of problems with applying this method so casually without looking at some of the nuance involved, but it at least gives us a glimpse into how special this offense could be.

Player to Watch: Anderson Varejao
Since losing LeBron James to Miami four years ago, the Cavs have gone into a tailspin, losing more games than any team in the NBA. While most of those losses can be attributed to LeBron's absence, injuries to Varejao, who has played in less than half of Cleveland's games, have been a huge factor. When he's actually been on the court, the Cavs have been a halfway decent team, posting a Net Rating of -3.3 Points Per 100 Possessions. That's roughly the equivalent to a 32-33 win team, which isn't great until you consider that without Varejao, Cleveland has a Net Rating of -8.1, which is the rough equivalent of a 20 win team. This year they posted a positive Net Rating with Andy on the court, and had their best season since "The Decision". While the LeBron and Love acquisitions will grab all the headlines, and deservedly so, a healthy Varejao could be the difference in their title odds.


Basketball-Reference.com Play Index:
Kevin Love last season vs. Charles Barkley's MVP season:

Player	Season	Age	MP	TS%	TRB%	AST%	TOV%	USG%	ORtg	DRtg	WS	WS/48
Charles Barkley*	1992-93	29	2859	.596	18.1	21.2	12.5	26.9	120	103	14.4	.242
Kevin Love	2013-14	25	2797	.591	18.7	21.4	10.3	28.8	120	104	14.3	.245

Freaky.


Next up, the Oklahoma City Thunder