Wednesday, October 8, 2014

NBA Preview Series: New Orleans Pelicans

Last Year
34-48 (21st in NBA)
OFF: 104.7 (13th)
DEF: 107.6 (26th)
NET: -2.6 (21st)



Projected Rotation (Projected WS/48)
Starters
PG - Jrue Holiday (.067)
SG - Eric Gordon (.058)
SF - Tyreke Evans (.077)
PF - Anthony Davis (.187)
C - Omer Asik (.115)

Reserves
PF - Ryan Anderson (.139)
SF - Darius Miller (.053)
SG - Jimmer Fredette (.062)
C - Alexis Ajinca (.106)
SG - Austin Rivers (.010)


Quick Thoughts:
Quietly, the Pelicans were above average offensively last season, but they didn't do anything particularly well. They ranked in the middle of the pack in shooting, drawing fouls, and collecting offensive rebounds, although they did do a good job taking care of the ball. Losing Anthony Morrow will hurt them, but a healthy Ryan Anderson means more of the deadly Anderson-Davis frontcourt, a duo that scored 112.7 points per 100 possession since they've been teammates, according to nbawowy.com. On the other end, the Pelicans were atrocious, ranking in the bottom half in all of the Four Factors defensively, including dead last in opponent free throw rate. The addition of Omer Asik will help tremendously, as he is an elite rebounder and rim protector who has drastically improved his foul rate since he was a rookie. With Davis sliding over to power forward, it's hard to imagine a better pair of defensive big men than Davis and Asik. Coach Monty Williams can feature both an elite offensive frontline and a potentially elite defensive frontline, something not many coaches can say.


Player to Watch: Anthony Davis
2015 will be the year of Anthony Davis and, coming off a terrific summer with Team USA, he should enter the MVP conversation. This might seem like a slight oversell of Davis' potential, but year three is typically where young players make the leap into superstardom. Check out the change in WS/48 over the first three years of these players' careers:


PlayerKevin DurantManu GinobiliJames HardenLeBron JamesKevin LoveDirk NowtizkiChris PaulDwyane WadeAnthony Davis
Year 1.040.141.124.078.124.040.178.103.159
Year 2.132.194.156.203.138.132.179.177.212
Year 3.238.240.230.232.210.224.284.239???
You could argue Davis had a better first two seasons than anyone on this list, and you'd probably be right. I'm not saying he will be better than LeBron or even Durant, those guys took a second leap in year six, but his name should be at the top of the list when we talk about who is the next guy to join that group.


Basketball-Reference.com Play Index:

The best age 20 seasons in NBA history:


RkPlayerMPTS%TRB%AST%STL%BLK%TOV%USG%WSWS/48
1LeBron James3388.55410.232.92.81.111.829.714.3.203
2Magic Johnson*2795.60211.625.23.10.820.920.910.5.180
3Anthony Davis2358.58216.68.02.06.78.325.210.4.212
4Shaquille O'Neal3071.58420.68.51.05.715.927.010.4.163
5Chris Paul2808.5468.538.23.40.213.722.210.4.178
6Andre Drummond2619.59922.32.22.04.010.716.79.9.182
7Adrian Dantley*2816.60110.57.71.40.39.8.167
8Dwight Howard3021.56520.97.21.23.015.921.38.6.137
9Kevin Durant2885.5779.613.51.71.412.228.37.9.132
10Chris Webber2438.55915.417.11.84.114.723.77.8.154
On a per-minute bases, Davis was the best.


Next up, the Indiana Pacers

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