Last Year
48-34 (T-11th in NBA)
OFF: 99.7 (27th)
DEF: 97.8 (2nd)
NET: 1.9 (12th)
48-34 (T-11th in NBA)
OFF: 99.7 (27th)
DEF: 97.8 (2nd)
NET: 1.9 (12th)
Projected Rotation (Projected WS/48)
Starters
PG - Derrick Rose (.072)
SG - Jimmy Butler (.134)
SF - Mike Dunleavy (.120)
PF - Pau Gasol (.096)
C - Joakim Noah (.178)
PG - Derrick Rose (.072)
SG - Jimmy Butler (.134)
SF - Mike Dunleavy (.120)
PF - Pau Gasol (.096)
C - Joakim Noah (.178)
Reserves
PF - Taj Gibson (.120)
PG - Kirk Hinrich (.086)
PG - Aaron Brooks (.062)
PF - Nikola Mirotic (-)
SF - Doug McDermott (-)
PF - Taj Gibson (.120)
PG - Kirk Hinrich (.086)
PG - Aaron Brooks (.062)
PF - Nikola Mirotic (-)
SF - Doug McDermott (-)
Quick Thoughts:
In 2011, Tom Thibodeau's first season as head coach, the Bulls were a defensive monster. They finished first in the NBA in defensive efficiency, but they also had a borderline top ten offense, largely because of Derrick Rose's MVP performance. With Rose on the court, Chicago was more than eight points per 100 possessions better on offense than when he sat, not all that surprising given their lack of a secondary creator. We saw a similar story in 2012, when the Bulls managed to finish with a top five offensive efficiency. Over the last two seasons, Chicago has maintained its elite defense, but have finished 24th and 27th in offense while Rose has been absent with knee injuries. The lesson here is that by himself Derrick Rose, or at least the previous iteration of Derrick Rose, makes the Bulls a credible, if not potentially elite, offensive team.
But this is a different Bulls team than in 2011 or 2012. Only three players on this roster have even played 300 minutes with Rose and one of them is Kirk Hinrich. We don't know how playing with Rose will affect Jimmy Butler or Mike Dunleavy, but both guys should benefit from additional spacing. We do know the kind of impact playing with Derrick has on Joakim Noah and Taj Gibson though. According the NBA.com, both guys had a higher offensive rebound rate and were better at finishing within five feet of the basket when Rose was on the floor, likely a product of the extra attention Rose received when driving to the basket. Without Rose, Noah's offensive role has changed to become more of a facilitator, which has pulled him away from the hoop and hurt his overall efficiency. With his point guard back, combined with his new-found passing skills, Noah could have his best offensive season, provided they both stay healthy.
In 2011, Tom Thibodeau's first season as head coach, the Bulls were a defensive monster. They finished first in the NBA in defensive efficiency, but they also had a borderline top ten offense, largely because of Derrick Rose's MVP performance. With Rose on the court, Chicago was more than eight points per 100 possessions better on offense than when he sat, not all that surprising given their lack of a secondary creator. We saw a similar story in 2012, when the Bulls managed to finish with a top five offensive efficiency. Over the last two seasons, Chicago has maintained its elite defense, but have finished 24th and 27th in offense while Rose has been absent with knee injuries. The lesson here is that by himself Derrick Rose, or at least the previous iteration of Derrick Rose, makes the Bulls a credible, if not potentially elite, offensive team.
But this is a different Bulls team than in 2011 or 2012. Only three players on this roster have even played 300 minutes with Rose and one of them is Kirk Hinrich. We don't know how playing with Rose will affect Jimmy Butler or Mike Dunleavy, but both guys should benefit from additional spacing. We do know the kind of impact playing with Derrick has on Joakim Noah and Taj Gibson though. According the NBA.com, both guys had a higher offensive rebound rate and were better at finishing within five feet of the basket when Rose was on the floor, likely a product of the extra attention Rose received when driving to the basket. Without Rose, Noah's offensive role has changed to become more of a facilitator, which has pulled him away from the hoop and hurt his overall efficiency. With his point guard back, combined with his new-found passing skills, Noah could have his best offensive season, provided they both stay healthy.
Player to Watch: Nikola Mirotic
Finding statistical comps for Mirotic is hard, in part because we don't really know how European stats translate to the NBA. But it's also difficult because of his unique skill set for a big man. Take a look at his offensive numbers for Real Madrid in the Spanish ACB League (raw totals courtesy of ACB.com):
And in the Euroleague Championships (Euroleague.net):
Mirotic is an ultra-efficient scorer, showing an ability to make threes at a high rate (career 39%) while also getting to the free throw line. He hasn't displayed great rebounding or passing skills, but some of his defensive statistics suggest he can be pretty good on that end too. If we regress some of his numbers, we can start to look at what type of player Mirotic may be in the NBA. Using Basketball-Reference.com, I ran a query to see which big men have a career free throw rate of at least .300 (Mirotic's is .445) and who take at least 2.5 three-pointers per 36 minutes (Mirotic takes 3.9). I then took out Kevin Love (too good at rebounding), Toni Kukoc (too good at passing), Brian Cardinal (too low usage), and Derrick Williams (too young). Here's what I got:
There haven't been a lot of players with his particular skill set, but if Troy Murphy is the median outcome that's good news for Bulls fans. Obviously there will be an adjustment period, but Mirotic is very likely to be a productive player with the upside for more.
Basketball-Reference.com Play Index:
Over the last four years, who are the best players in the NBA?
Next up, the Minnesota Timberwolves
Finding statistical comps for Mirotic is hard, in part because we don't really know how European stats translate to the NBA. But it's also difficult because of his unique skill set for a big man. Take a look at his offensive numbers for Real Madrid in the Spanish ACB League (raw totals courtesy of ACB.com):
| Season | G | MP | TS% | eFG% | FTr | 3PAr | ORB% | AST% | TOV% | USG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 35 | 574 | .621 | .563 | .355 | .311 | 8.3 | 7.2 | 13.5 | 21.4 |
| 2011 | 42 | 818 | .597 | .559 | .433 | .354 | 7.1 | 6.1 | 9.8 | 20.3 |
| 2013 | 43 | 1007 | .625 | .571 | .443 | .329 | 8.8 | 6.6 | 11.4 | 22.5 |
| 2014 | 43 | 973 | .620 | .559 | .497 | .303 | 7.2 | 7.9 | 9.9 | 21.7 |
| Total | 163 | 3372 | .617 | .563 | .442 | .324 | 7.8 | 7.0 | 10.9 | 21.6 |
And in the Euroleague Championships (Euroleague.net):
| Season | G | MP | TS% | eFG% | FTr | 3PAr | ORB% | AST% | TOV% | USG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 20 | 300 | .609 | .563 | .292 | .323 | 7.7 | 8.2 | 10.7 | 19.9 |
| 2011 | 16 | 369 | .681 | .600 | .508 | .342 | 4.6 | 6.5 | 12.5 | 21.2 |
| 2013 | 29 | 722 | .595 | .530 | .398 | .339 | 7.0 | 6.9 | 14.2 | 21.6 |
| 2014 | 31 | 745 | .658 | .595 | .538 | .377 | 6.5 | 8.6 | 10.2 | 21.7 |
| Total | 96 | 2136 | .634 | .569 | .451 | .350 | 6.5 | 7.7 | 12.1 | 21.3 |
Mirotic is an ultra-efficient scorer, showing an ability to make threes at a high rate (career 39%) while also getting to the free throw line. He hasn't displayed great rebounding or passing skills, but some of his defensive statistics suggest he can be pretty good on that end too. If we regress some of his numbers, we can start to look at what type of player Mirotic may be in the NBA. Using Basketball-Reference.com, I ran a query to see which big men have a career free throw rate of at least .300 (Mirotic's is .445) and who take at least 2.5 three-pointers per 36 minutes (Mirotic takes 3.9). I then took out Kevin Love (too good at rebounding), Toni Kukoc (too good at passing), Brian Cardinal (too low usage), and Derrick Williams (too young). Here's what I got:
| Player | G | MP | TS% | eFG% | ORB% | AST% | TOV% | USG% | WS/48 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dirk Nowitzki | 1188 | 42603 | .582 | .514 | 3.6 | 13.2 | 8.8 | 27.0 | .208 |
| Mehmet Okur | 634 | 18429 | .558 | .503 | 8.2 | 10.1 | 11.4 | 21.4 | .142 |
| Danilo Gallinari | 285 | 8923 | .576 | .504 | 2.9 | 9.2 | 9.7 | 19.8 | .129 |
| Troy Murphy | 729 | 19921 | .541 | .493 | 7.4 | 8.7 | 10.9 | 18.0 | .121 |
| Austin Croshere | 659 | 11480 | .532 | .466 | 7.2 | 9.2 | 13.5 | 19.6 | .115 |
| Clifford Robinson | 1380 | 42561 | .512 | .475 | 4.9 | 12.1 | 11.6 | 22.3 | .101 |
| Bostjan Nachbar | 317 | 5628 | .541 | .494 | 2.6 | 8.7 | 11.9 | 19.5 | .074 |
Basketball-Reference.com Play Index:
Over the last four years, who are the best players in the NBA?
| Player | MP | TS% | TRB% | AST% | STL% | BLK% | TOV% | USG% | WS/48 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeBron James | 11168 | .622 | 12.1 | 34.2 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 13.5 | 31.1 | .281 |
| Chris Paul | 9567 | .583 | 6.6 | 46.2 | 3.7 | 0.2 | 12.8 | 22.8 | .264 |
| Kevin Durant | 11825 | .621 | 11.1 | 19.9 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 12.6 | 31.2 | .253 |
| Kevin Love | 8171 | .575 | 20.7 | 14.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 10.2 | 26.9 | .216 |
| James Harden | 9897 | .615 | 7.1 | 22.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 14.3 | 25.1 | .204 |
| Tyson Chandler | 7946 | .676 | 18.6 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 3.2 | 15.2 | 13.3 | .200 |
| Dwyane Wade | 8614 | .575 | 9.2 | 25.5 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 13.1 | 30.2 | .198 |
| Manu Ginobili | 6161 | .589 | 7.6 | 28.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 15.1 | 25.1 | .189 |
| Joakim Noah | 8767 | .547 | 18.0 | 18.1 | 1.6 | 3.7 | 16.7 | 17.3 | .188 |
| Dirk Nowitzki | 8872 | .589 | 11.6 | 13.7 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 8.4 | 27.3 | .187 |
Next up, the Minnesota Timberwolves
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