Wednesday, October 22, 2014

NBA Preview Series: Los Angeles Clippers

Last Year
57-25 (3rd in NBA)
OFF: 109.4 (1st)
DEF: 102.1 (7th)
NET: 7.3 (2nd)



Projected Rotation (Projected WS/48)
Starters
PG - Chris Paul (.269)
SG - J.J. Redick (.120)
SF - Matt Barnes (.115)
PF - Blake Griffin (.197)
C - DeAndre Jordan (.168)

Reserves
SG - Jamal Crawford (.115)
C - Spencer Hawes (.096)
SF - Chris Douglas-Roberts (.110)
PG - Jordan Farmar (.058)
PF - Glen Davis (.053)


Quick Thoughts:
Despite going into the season without any real great defensive players, the Clippers managed to finish seventh in the league in defensive efficiency. At first glance, it appears to be a result of DeAndre Jordan finally blossoming into an elite rim protector, something his coach seems to buy into. He was second in the league in blocks and had a defensive rating of 98, the best on his team. But when you dig a little deeper, the narrative changes. The Clippers were actually better defensively when Jordan sat, according to NBA.com, even though they typically featured smaller lineups with Blake Griffin or Glen Davis at center. Opponents also shot a higher percentage from inside the restricted area when Jordan was on the floor, not exactly indicative of a great rim protector. In fact, the Clippers as a team were in the bottom half of the league in defending this shot. However, they were particularly good at defending two types of shots: the mid-range and the three. Doc Rivers' team had the best opponent field goal percentage from both of these areas, and it wasn't by accident. Dating back to his years in Boston, Rivers' teams have finished in the top five in opponents three point percentage every season since 2008 (which happened to be the same year he hired Tom Thibodeau). Four times during that same stretch, the Celtics had the best opponent field goal percentage from mid-range as well. Boston was also elite at defending shots in the restricted area, but that seems to be more a matter of personnel. While he didn't bring Kevin Garnett with him, Doc's defensive scheme has translated to Los Angeles, giving them a defense good enough to make them legitimate title contenders. 


Player to Watch: Chris Douglas-Roberts
The Clippers were paper-thin last year, especially on the wing. J.J. Redick missed 47 games due to injury, and the Jared Dudley/Willie Green duo combined for more than 2500 minutes of glorious suck. Meanwhile, Douglas-Roberts had the best season of his career in Charlotte, becoming a value deep-threat who could defend his position. He'll be a natural fit in Los Angeles, where he'll do a better job filling Dudley's role as the "3 and D" wing off the bench.


Basketball-Reference.com Play Index:

How does Chris Paul's first nine seasons rank historically?


RkPlayerMPWS/48
1Michael Jordan25842.274
2Kareem Abdul-Jabbar28614.271
3Wilt Chamberlain33044.267
4David Robinson23810.261
5Chris Paul22448.246
6LeBron James27497.233
7Shaquille O'Neal23072.227
8Oscar Robertson30223.227
9Charles Barkley25620.226
10Tim Duncan25240.223
And how do his first nine seasons compare with other great point guards?


PlayerMPTS%eFG%TRB%AST%STL%TOV%USG%WSWS/48
Magic Johnson*23531.604.53711.138.62.619.721.6104.2.213
Chris Paul22448.575.5087.146.53.513.023.7115.2.246
Oscar Robertson*30223.571.48734.4142.8.227
John Stockton*23179.600.5344.551.83.821.318.697.9.203
Isiah Thomas*26269.522.4705.538.02.716.725.267.6.123


Next up, the Orlando Magic

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