Friday, October 24, 2014

NBA Preview Series: Orlando Magic

Last Year
23-59 (28th in NBA)
OFF: 99.3 (29th)
DEF: 104.8 (17th)
NET: -5.5 (25th)



Projected Rotation (Projected WS/48)
Starters
PG - Elfrid Payton (-)
SG - Victor Oladipo (.029)
SF - Tobias Harris (.101)
PF - Channing Frye (.106)
C - Nikola Vucevic (.110)

Reserves
SF - Maurice Harkless (.067)
PF - Aaron Gordon (-)
SG - Ben Gordon (.000)
C - Kyle O'Quinn (.101)
PG - Luke Ridnour (.053)


Quick Thoughts:
When General Manager Rob Hennigan was hired by the Magic in the summer of 2012, his first major task was to find the right partner for a Dwight Howard trade. The Nets, who were the favorites to land Howard, reportedly offered Brook Lopez and four first round picks. The Magic ended up moving him to the Los Angeles in a four-team trade that netted them a boatload of assets, including Nikola Vucevic, Maurice Harkless, what is now Elfrid Payton, and a still-coming first round pick from the Lakers. It's always hard to evaluate a trade like this, especially this soon. But Hennigan's moves since have not exactly inspired confidence that he can rebuild this team into a contender.

1) Signed-and-traded Ryan Anderson to New Orleans for Gustavo Ayon - This trade actually occurred a month before the Howard deal. Anderson was a restricted free agent, and rather than just signing him to an offer sheet, the Hornets agreed to send back Ayon. Ayon is a nice player, and this trade makes some sense if you didn't want to pay Anderson during a rebuild, but he's a better version of Channing Frye making the same money the next two seasons, and he's five years younger

2) Traded Josh McRoberts to Charlotte for Hakim Warrick - McRoberts didn't play particularly well for Orlando, so it's hard to fault them for not seeing what he would become, but that's not what is curious about this trade. Both players were in the final year of their contract, and Warrick actually had a higher salary. He was released two days later.

3) Traded J.J. Redick to Milwaukee for Tobias Harris - There were other non-essential parts to this deal, but basically the Magic were trying to get an asset for Redick, whose contract was set to expire. Consistent with the Howard trade, they opted for a player instead of a draft pick. Harris has basically been a league average player for Orlando, and will enter restricted free agency next summer.

4) Traded Arron Afflalo to Denver for Evan Fournier and a 2nd Round Pick - Looking to capitalize on his career year, the Magic shopped Afflalo hard this summer, ultimately settling on what will essential be a salary dump. They actually got a better package from the Bulls just for taking on Anthony Randolph's $1.8 million salary. Afflalo is essentially in the last year of his deal (player option for next season), so the market wasn't there. But you wonder if they would have been better served to wait it out, hoping for a desperate team that would have traded real assets.

5) Signed free agents Channing Frye and Ben Gordon - This one is the real head-scratcher, especially the Gordon signing. Frye will help out in the locker room, be a floor-spacer for their young guards to work, and make them more fun to watch. Gordon butted heads with coaches in Detroit and Charlotte, and hasn't been an above average player since he left the Bulls in 2009, even accumulating negative win shares the last two seasons.


Player to Watch: Victor Oladipo
The Magic experimented with Oladipo as a point guard last season, where he played 59% of his minutes, according to Basketball-Reference.com. The reasoning is unclear, whether it was a hidden way to tank, a way to develop his playmaking skills, or because they really thought he could do it. They'll presumably move him off the ball after drafting Elfrid Payton, and with Afflalo no longer on the roster he'll get a long look as the starting two guard. In college, Oladipo was a transition monster who eventually refined offensive skills in the half-court. He improved his ball handling while developing a three-point shot, although one season of college ball is too small a sample to know if that was legitimate. He also draws a lot of fouls, an important skill for a perimeter scorer in today's NBA. We should see significant overall improvement from Oladipo now that he's back playing his natural position.


Basketball-Reference.com Play Index:

The worst lineups that played at least 150 minutes last season:

RkLineupTmMPPTS
1A. Afflalo | G. Davis | T. Harris | J. Nelson | V. OladipoORL201.0-22.8
2A. Ajinca | A. Aminu | A. Davis | E. Gordon | B. RobertsNOP181.4-16.3
3J. Adrien | B. Knight | K. Middleton | Z. Pachulia | R. SessionsMIL192.1-15.3
4T. Burke | G. Hayward | R. Jefferson | E. Kanter | M. WilliamsUTA152.2-12.8
5J. Anderson | M. Carter-Williams | S. Hawes | E. Turner | T. YoungPHI612.4-12.7
6T. Burke | D. Favors | G. Hayward | R. Jefferson | E. KanterUTA206.1-12.7
7B. Jennings | G. Monroe | K. Singler | J. Smith | R. StuckeyDET249.3-11.3
8J. Anderson | M. Carter-Williams | H. Sims | H. Thompson | T. YoungPHI309.8-10.4
9D. DeRozan | R. Gay | A. Johnson | K. Lowry | J. ValanciunasTOR243.5-10.3
10A. Drummond | B. Jennings | G. Monroe | K. Singler | J. SmithDET461.1-9.8
I guess it's a good thing three of those guys are gone.


Next up, the Boston Celtics

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