NBA Preview Series: Miami Heat

Last Year

54-28 (T-5th in NBA)

OFF: 109.0 (2nd)

DEF: 102.9 (11th)

NET: 6.1 (4th)

Projected Rotation (Projected WS/48)

Starters
PG - Mario Chalmers (.110)
SG - Dwyane Wade (.168)
SF - Luol Deng (.101)
PF - Josh McRoberts (.115)
C - Chris Bosh (.158)

Reserves
C - Chris Andersen (.202)
SF - Danny Granger (.091)
PG - Norris Cole (.029)
PF - Udonis Haslem (.101)
SG - Shannon Brown (.034)

Quick Thoughts:
There's no question that Miami's offense will take a big step back this season after LeBron James left for Cleveland, but how much will his absence hurt them on defense? Over the last three seasons, the Heat's defensive rating was 100.1 when LeBron was on the court, compared to 101.0 when he sat, according to NBA.com. And when you consider his replacement, Luol Deng, the Heat really may not see much a drop off at all. Of course, there are other factors at play, like how Chris Bosh's increased offensive role will affect his defense, and if Chris Andersen, at age 36, continues to offer elite rim protection while playing more minutes. If Miami can sustain a top ten defense, they'll make the playoffs, and may still be favorites to win their division.

Player to Watch: Josh McRoberts
Since he started seeing regular playing time four years ago, McRoberts has been one of the more underrated players in the NBA. He doesn't have traditional big man skills, but his game is reminiscent of another non-traditional power forward with whom the Heat should be very familiar with. Since 2011:

Player	TS%	3PA/g	3P%	TRB%	AST%	WS
Boris Diaw	.561	1.8	.357	9.4	18.9	14.7
Josh McRoberts	.557	1.7	.351	11.4	17.1	15.0

The Heat may be the first team in NBA history whose starting big men are both better three point shooters than its starting wing players.


Basketball-Reference.com Play Index:
In the last two seasons, the best bench players in per-minute production:

Rk	Player	G	GS	MP	TS%	TRB%	AST%	STL%	BLK%	TOV%	USG%	WS/48
1	Chris Andersen	114	0	2020	.666	17.0	2.7	1.3	6.0	13.0	14.0	.206
2	Brandan Wright	122	16	2226	.647	12.8	5.2	1.3	4.7	7.7	18.3	.199
3	Manu Ginobili	128	3	2943	.576	7.8	29.7	2.6	0.7	16.8	24.9	.166
4	Patrick Mills	139	4	2183	.589	5.7	15.1	2.2	0.4	9.7	21.9	.155
5	Tyler Hansbrough	145	12	2344	.539	16.0	3.7	1.3	1.2	13.3	18.3	.152
6	JaVale McGee	84	5	1512	.581	14.7	2.8	1.0	8.4	13.1	21.3	.152
7	Carl Landry	99	3	2109	.602	14.1	5.4	0.9	1.2	13.6	19.4	.151
8	Ed Davis	144	32	2587	.554	16.5	5.9	1.1	4.1	10.4	17.7	.148
9	Amar'e Stoudemire	94	21	2148	.610	12.7	4.0	0.8	2.4	12.7	24.1	.145
10	Nick Collison	162	2	2936	.613	12.1	11.1	1.4	1.6	18.6	11.5	.144

Next up, the Sacramento Kings.