NBA Preview Series: Memphis Grizzlies

Last Year
50-32 (9th in NBA)
OFF: 103.3 (17th)
DEF: 102.1 (8th)
NET: 1.2 (14th)

Projected Rotation (Projected WS/48)

Starters
PG - Michael Conley (.158)
SG - Courtney Lee (.101)
SF - Tayshaun Prince (.048)
PF - Zach Randolph (.125)
C - Marc Gasol (.163)

Reserves
SG - Vince Carter (.115)
SG - Tony Allen (.106)
C - Kosta Koufos (.139)
PF - Jon Leuer (.130)
PG - Beno Udrih (.072)

Quick Thoughts:
The Grizzlies have invested a lot in their wing players. Courtney Lee is guaranteed $11 million over the next two seasons, while Vince Carter, Tony Allen, and Quincy Pondexter are all under team control for at least the next three seasons. Then there's first round pick Jordan Adams, who rated very well in every statistically-based draft model. This makes you wonder how long Tayshaun Prince will be starting, or even playing, especially for a team as analytically-minded as the Grizzlies. It also gives Coach Dave Joerger a lot of options: each of these wing players offer different skillsets, allowing him to mix and match around his three star players.

Player to Watch: Kosta Koufos
Koufos was terrific in his two years in Denver, grabbing offensive rebounds at a top ten rate and shooting 58% from the field. He was traded to Memphis before the start of last season, where he remained an elite rebounder, but his Field Goal Percentage dipped below 50%. Look at his change in shot distribution (data courtesy of NBA.com):

Season	Tm	Restricted Area	In the Paint (Non-RA)	Mid-Range
2011-12	DEN	.771	.193	.036
2012-13	DEN	.724	.232	.041
2013-14	MEM	.529	.364	.107

Last season, for whatever reason, Koufos traded shots from inside the restricted area (typically dunks and layups) for shots in the 3-10 foot range (typically floaters and hook shots). Not only did he take lower percentage shots, but he actually shot a lower percentage inside too. This could just be a one year outlier, or it could have represented a fit issue. Koufos played almost 70% of his minutes last year with Zach Randolph or Ed Davis, both players who spend most of their time in the paint. The good news is that this season Koufos should see more time with Jon Leuer, whose three-point range will provide more spacing, and less time with Davis, who now plays for the Lakers.


Basketball-Reference.com Play Index:
Which players, over the last three seasons, have a Steal Rate above 3% and a Turnover Rate below 14%?

Player	Tm	MP	TS%	eFG%	TRB%	AST%	STL%	BLK%	TOV%	USG%	WS/48
Chris Paul	LAC	6687	.585	.520	6.5	46.4	3.7	0.2	12.3	23.5	.278
Mike Conley	MEM	7377	.541	.493	4.7	29.8	3.1	0.5	13.5	21.4	.159
Tony Allen	MEM	4912	.516	.473	9.6	8.9	3.4	1.6	14.0	18.6	.116

Next up, the Golden State Warriors