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| The Bulls success largely hinges on it's three leaders: Butler, Noah, and Rose. |
After five years of strong regular seasons followed by disappointing postseasons, the Bulls fired Tom Thibodeau and replaced him with Fred Hoiberg, who has no NBA coaching experience. Despite having a deep and talented frontcourt, they haven't been able to optimize that talent, and it remains to be seen if they will this year. Derrick Rose finally finished last season healthy, but he hasn't been any good since 2012. And with Mike Dunleavy out for at least a couple months (and maybe most of the season), their wing rotation is very thin.
It's safe to say that there are too many questions to consider the Bulls a serious threat to the Cavaliers in the East, much less to any team out West. But let's imagine a scenario in which everything goes right:
1. Jimmy Butler builds upon his 2014-15 season.
Jimmy improved in almost every aspect of his game last season, and is now Chicago's unquestioned best player and leader. His defense slipped some as he was burdened with a bigger offensive responsibility, which is understandable, but he's talked about refocusing defensively. He also has talked about being more of a playmaker, and that's been evident during the preseason, where he's averaging 5.6 assists per 36 minutes, up from 3.0 last year (his turnovers have stayed the same too). Butler has a chance to establish himself as a legitimate top ten player, and having one of those is a typically a prerequisite to being a title team.
2. Derrick Rose finally returns to being a productive player.
The good news is that Rose was able to finish last season healthy and spent the offseason training instead of rehabbing. The bad news is that, overall, he wasn't particularly good last year. His used over 30% of his team's possessions while posting a a true shooting under 50%. His shooting was bad basically everywhere: at the rim, beyond the arc, and even from midrange, where he was once elite.
There were times, though, where he looked like his old self, even if his actual production didn't say so. That was also the case in his one and only preseason game. He scored 8 points on 6 shots in 10 minutes, and his only three point attempt was an end-of-quarter heave. After the game he spoke about all the space he has to drive in the new system, hopefully a sign that he'll attack the rim more often this year. Rose was still an fantastic isolation player last year, finishing in the 90th percentile in points per possession according to SportsVU data, and had one of the best FG% in the league on his drives.
Rose's progress is important not just for the upside he provides, but also because without him they have a huge whole in the backcourt. Championship teams don't start Aaron Brooks or E'Twaun Moore at point guard, and definitely not Kirk Hinrich.
3. Joakim Noah re-anchors the defense.
Noah is reportedly back to full strength, an encouraging sign for the Bulls' defensive potential. While he was limited by injury last year, the Bulls saw a dip in their defensive efficiency, finishing outside the top ten for the first time in the Tom Thibodeau era. He was playing out of position at power forward, taking him away from the basket where he is most effective. He likely won't be at the level he was at in 2014 when he was Defensive Player of the Year, but he can return to the player who made three All-Defensive teams. Even though he'll be coming off the bench (at least to start the year), a healthy Noah eases concerns that the defense will take a further dip now that Thibs is gone.
4. Nikola Mirotic is as good as we all think he is.
There has been some chatter that Mirotic might not actually be a good three point shooter. He only shot 31.6% last season on over 300 attempts, and made only 7 of 30 in the playoffs. However one season of three point shooting is still a relatively small sample, and he shot close to 40% in a much larger sample in Europe (38% this preseason). His ability to draw fouls is real, and he's a rare 40/40 player: someone whose 3PA rate and FT rate are both over 40%. This means that even if he doesn't shoot much better from beyond the arc than he did last year, he will still be an efficient scorer. The Bulls also rebounded better when he was on the court and he had a decent block rate, indicating he's not as bad defensively as his reputation (he had a positive defensive RPM). If Mirotic can translate his production into a starting role, he can be an All-Star level player.
5. Doug McDermott and is an actual NBA rotation player.
Doug has looked great in preseason, and seems to be a perfect fit in Hoiberg's system. His shooting is crucial for the Bulls since Mike Dunleavy is set to miss a ton of time, even if he doesn't start in his place. He provides spacing for drives by Rose and Butler, but also Gasol or Gibson post ups. Like Dunleavy, he can be a dangerous player in transition, and can even play some stretch four if they can ever find minutes for him there. The consequences of McDermott flopping is the Bulls having no viable wing options off the bench. That means a lot of E'Twaun Moore and Kirk Hinrich, and more Mirotic at the three.
6. The big man rotation gets sorted out.
Last year the Noah/Gasol front court didn't work out, although it was far from a disaster. The problem was that it didn't seem to maximize either player's skillset, and each would have been better served with one of the backups, Mirotic or Gibson. Noah/Mirotic and Gibson/Gasol seem to be the optimal pairings, but the two groups only played 348 and 765 minutes together, respectively (excluding when Mirotic was at SF). Moving Noah to the bench in place of Mirotic is a step in the right direction, though still not ideal. Niko is probably the best overall player in the Bulls' frontcourt, so he should certainly be starting and finishing games. Him and Gasol showed excellent chemistry this summer at EuroBasket, and the Bulls will score when they play together. Unlike his predecessor, Coach Hoiberg has shown a willingness to be flexible with his decisions. If Mirotic and Gasol give up to many points on the other end, I'm confident he'll be willing to change it.
If everything goes right, the Bulls have an excellent shot at beating the Cavs and contending for an NBA championship. What's more likely, though, is some of these things happen and some don't, and they come up short. But hey, it's preseason, now is the time to be optimistic!
Doug has looked great in preseason, and seems to be a perfect fit in Hoiberg's system. His shooting is crucial for the Bulls since Mike Dunleavy is set to miss a ton of time, even if he doesn't start in his place. He provides spacing for drives by Rose and Butler, but also Gasol or Gibson post ups. Like Dunleavy, he can be a dangerous player in transition, and can even play some stretch four if they can ever find minutes for him there. The consequences of McDermott flopping is the Bulls having no viable wing options off the bench. That means a lot of E'Twaun Moore and Kirk Hinrich, and more Mirotic at the three.
6. The big man rotation gets sorted out.
Last year the Noah/Gasol front court didn't work out, although it was far from a disaster. The problem was that it didn't seem to maximize either player's skillset, and each would have been better served with one of the backups, Mirotic or Gibson. Noah/Mirotic and Gibson/Gasol seem to be the optimal pairings, but the two groups only played 348 and 765 minutes together, respectively (excluding when Mirotic was at SF). Moving Noah to the bench in place of Mirotic is a step in the right direction, though still not ideal. Niko is probably the best overall player in the Bulls' frontcourt, so he should certainly be starting and finishing games. Him and Gasol showed excellent chemistry this summer at EuroBasket, and the Bulls will score when they play together. Unlike his predecessor, Coach Hoiberg has shown a willingness to be flexible with his decisions. If Mirotic and Gasol give up to many points on the other end, I'm confident he'll be willing to change it.
If everything goes right, the Bulls have an excellent shot at beating the Cavs and contending for an NBA championship. What's more likely, though, is some of these things happen and some don't, and they come up short. But hey, it's preseason, now is the time to be optimistic!
Good stuff...more confident in 1-2. I think 3-5 are major question marks, in particular 3 (I think he's diminished goods at this point). At least those are depth issues that can be sorted out in the trade market if need be.
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