Going into the 2014-15 season, big man depth figured to be a strength for the Chicago Bulls. Featuring four starting-caliber frontcourt players, it would be a challenge to distribute minutes in a way that would keep everyone happy while also fielding the most competitive team. It seems for the most part everyone was satisfied with their role, but were Tom Thibodeau's lineup choices optimal?
Using nbawowy!, I looked at each of the six combinations of the four big men and how the team did when each was on the floor during the regular season. I did not include any lineups where Mirotic played with two other big men.
Gasol/Noah (1191 minutes)
eFG% | TOV% | ORB% | FTr | Efficiency | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Offense | 49.0 | 13.5 | 25.9 | .203 | 106.9 |
Defense | 47.8 | 10.6 | 24.6 | .141 | 104.0 |
2.9 |
Gasol/Gibson (765 minutes)
eFG% | TOV% | ORB% | FTr | Efficiency | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Offense | 48.2 | 13.2 | 28.9 | .246 | 110.1 |
Defense | 46.7 | 9.7 | 27.9 | .176 | 106.0 |
4.1 |
eFG% | TOV% | ORB% | FTr | Efficiency | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Offense | 49.6 | 13.9 | 20.2 | .332 | 107.1 |
Defense | 45.3 | 10.2 | 27.3 | .221 | 104.2 |
2.9 |
Gibson/Mirotic (388 minutes)
eFG% | TOV% | ORB% | FTr | Efficiency | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Offense | 50.9 | 13.9 | 26.2 | .224 | 108.2 |
Defense | 44.7 | 13.0 | 22.9 | .241 | 99.3 |
9.9 |
Mirotic/Noah (348 minutes)
eFG% | TOV% | ORB% | FTr | Efficiency | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Offense | 54.0 | 14.7 | 27.7 | .229 | 113.7 |
Defense | 47.5 | 11.8 | 23.1 | .230 | 103.6 |
10.1 |
Gibson/Noah (248 minutes)
eFG% | TOV% | ORB% | FTr | Efficiency | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Offense | 45.2 | 15.9 | 30.5 | .195 | 100.4 |
Defense | 50.2 | 12.8 | 27.9 | .171 | 108.3 |
-7.9 |
Some observations:
- You can see why Bulls fans were so frustrated by the Gasol/Noah lineup: the duo played the most minutes together despite relatively mediocre results. There were seemingly better options to pair with each player, and the lack of fit both offensively and defensively became more and more apparent as they season went along.
- The two best lineups, by a mile, had Mirotic paired with a defensive-oriented big. Not only were these great offense lineups, but they cleaned up the defensive glass as well. I firmly believe Mirotic needs to start next season (next to Noah), and this only provides more evidence.
- What was once a defense juggernaut, the Gibson/Noah lineup was terrible last season. I'm going to chalk it up to small sample sizes and injuries.
It's probably irresponsible to draw a ton of conclusions from this data. The sample sizes are small, and there's obviously three other guys that are unaccounted for when looking at the lineups. But much of the results seem to fit common narratives about how Thibs used his big-man rotation last season. I should also note that it's easy to make lineup decisions when you don't have to deal with egos, or the ramifications of benching a former All-Star. The biggest question for the Bulls during training camp will be who Fred Hoiberg decides to use in his starting lineup, and how his team responds to his decision.
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