Over locks:
Boston (42.5)
They were 17-10 after acquiring Isaiah Thomas last year with a +3.0 net rating, then added Amir Johnson this offseason.
Detroit (33.5)
SVG has the right players for his system, and Drummond could make a leap.
Portland (28.5)
Too much competence to win less than 30 games.
Under locks:
Brooklyn (28.5)
Worst team in the league.
Milwaukee (43.5)
Big time regression candidate after jumping 26 wins last year. Parker/Monroe are nice additions, but they'll miss Knight/Dudley/Ilyasova/Pachulia.
San Antonio (58.5)
They might be great, but it will take some time to integrate Aldridge. And they'll pace themselves.
Other overs:
Charlotte (32.5)
MKG injury hurts, but enough talent to be decent on both ends.
Houston (54.5)
Best depth in NBA. Slight regression candidate on defense, however.
LA Clippers (56.5)
Won 56 or 57 each of last three years, and this is best team of Chris Paul era. I'm a noted Clippers optimist.
Orlando (32.5)
Scott Skiles bump and year three jump for Oladipo makes this a good bet.
Philadelphia (21.5)
Good defense, good coaching, and young roster leads to improvement.
Sacramento (30.5)
Enough talent to challenge for the eighth seed, but too much dysfunction and talent not optimized.
Enough talent to challenge for the eighth seed, but too much dysfunction and talent not optimized.
Utah (40.5)
Great frontcourt, solid depth. Only question is how much black hole at point guard hurts them.
Other unders:
Cleveland (56.5)
Injury issues will cost them some early wins, plus they will be pacing themselves. Still the second best team in the NBA.
Injury issues will cost them some early wins, plus they will be pacing themselves. Still the second best team in the NBA.
Dallas (38.5)
Just talented enough to lose their top-7 protected pick, but not talented enough to contend for the playoffs.
Indiana (42.5)
Switch to small-ball will hurt their defense, but won't help enough on offense.
LA Lakers (29.5)We all know how bad they'll be defensively, but inefficient perimeter shooters, Roy Hibbert, and bad coaching will make this a horrendous offense team too.
Memphis (50.5)
This could be there year they start to slip. But probably not.
Miami (45.5)
Fit/spacing issues in their starting lineup means the whole is less than the sum of their parts.
New York (31.5)
Still only have two above average players. At least it looks like they'll play their young guys.
Stay away:
Atlanta (49.5)
Point differential of a 56 win team, lost DeMarre Carroll, and a lot of their players had career years last season.
Chicago (49.5)
Coach Hoiberg will undoubtedly help their offense, but how will they be on defense?
Denver (26.5)
Weird mix of veteran pieces and young guys. A lot depends on if they trade anybody.
Golden State (60.5)
Kerr injury and willingness to pace themselves makes them hard to peg.
Minnesota (25.5)
Towns/Wiggins is exciting, but at least a year away from being any good.
New Orleans (47.5)
All the current injuries make this a tough call.
Oklahoma City (57.5)
I like this team a lot, but this is a high number and questions remain about Coach Donovan , Durant's foot, and how they will use Waiters/Kanter.
Phoenix (36.5)
Hard to know how the Morris situation turns out, and the depth behind him is poor. Bledsoe is underrated, but how good is Knight, and how much does Chandler have left?
Toronto (45.5)
They were bad on defense last year and lost their best defensive player. On the other hand...skinny Lowry!
Washington (45.5)
Not a lot of great talent on this roster, but Wall/Beal breakouts very possible.
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