For my bold predictions, I try to strike a balance between realistic and not-so-obvious. As a measuring stick, I'll consider getting three predictions correct a success. Any more and I'll conclude they weren't quite bold enough. Any less and, well, I'm not as smart as I think I am. Here we go, 7 (not so) bold predictions for this upcoming season.
1. Portland will contend for the eighth seed.
"Contend" might be a strong word here, but I think Portland has a good chance of finishing ninth in the Western Conference. Losing four starters will obviously hurt them, but they rebounded nicely by acquiring several young players who were productive in limited roles last season. They should once again be a great offensive team, but probably won't be very good defensively.
To me, this also speaks to the quality of the lower half of the Western Conference. The top eight teams are pretty clear (as are the bottom three), and Phoenix, Dallas, and Sacramento all have disaster potential. We know that Portland is going to compete every night, and when you add in a quality coach and an emerging superstar, I think their floor is pretty high.
To me, this also speaks to the quality of the lower half of the Western Conference. The top eight teams are pretty clear (as are the bottom three), and Phoenix, Dallas, and Sacramento all have disaster potential. We know that Portland is going to compete every night, and when you add in a quality coach and an emerging superstar, I think their floor is pretty high.
2. John Wall will make "The Leap".
It's year six for Wall, who is entering his age 25 season. The two-time All-Star seems primed to reach another level as he inherits a leadership role left void by Paul Pierce's departure. Wall is already an elite passer and outstanding defender at his position. Both skills have helped Washington be deadly in transition. According to Seth Partnow's Speed Index, the Wizards were the NBA's third best team at converting transition opportunities into points. With the team's new offensive philosophy, his passing numbers may look even better surrounded by three shooters.
Two obvious areas for Wall to upgrade his game are his shooting efficiency and his turnover rate. For a point guard, his turnover rate is about average, but according to Basketball-Reference, he led the league in bad pass turnovers with 193. As he becomes a better decision-maker and with the additional spacing this season, Wall figures to improve in this area. He also needs to improve his below-average true shooting percentage. Better shot selection will help, but so will better shot making. Even a small increase in shooting efficiency will go a long way to making Wall an upper echelon player.
Two obvious areas for Wall to upgrade his game are his shooting efficiency and his turnover rate. For a point guard, his turnover rate is about average, but according to Basketball-Reference, he led the league in bad pass turnovers with 193. As he becomes a better decision-maker and with the additional spacing this season, Wall figures to improve in this area. He also needs to improve his below-average true shooting percentage. Better shot selection will help, but so will better shot making. Even a small increase in shooting efficiency will go a long way to making Wall an upper echelon player.
3. Brooklyn will be the NBA's worst team.
A playoff team last year, the Nets won 38 games, including 17 of 30 to finish the season after they acquired Thaddeus Young. But they had an overall point differential of a 33 win team, and the downgrade at point guard from Deron Williams to Jarrett Jack could be catastrophic, not to mention the subsequent downgrade from Jack to Shane Larkin at backup. Joe Johnson is another year older, and any injury to the frontcourt means Andrea Bargnani will be starting games.
The scary part of the Nets being bad is they don't have any way of getting better. The essentially owe Boston their next three first round picks (2016 and 2018, swap rights in 2017), and they have exactly one cost-controlled rotation player under the age of 26. It's also hard to imagine any legitimate free agent willing to sign there. Brooklyn has by far the worst present and future outlook in the entire NBA.
The scary part of the Nets being bad is they don't have any way of getting better. The essentially owe Boston their next three first round picks (2016 and 2018, swap rights in 2017), and they have exactly one cost-controlled rotation player under the age of 26. It's also hard to imagine any legitimate free agent willing to sign there. Brooklyn has by far the worst present and future outlook in the entire NBA.
4. Philadelphia will win 30 games.
I searched and searched for statistical evidence to support this prediction, but couldn't find anything all that helpful. The 76ers were better in the second half of last season, but still had the point differential of a 20 win team. They are bringing back most of the same players, and their big addition, Jahlil Okafor, is only a rookie and probably won't be any good this year. They also have every incentive to be bad again, despite rumblings of impatience among some of the ownership*.
But everyone they're bringing back is 26 or younger (heck, the whole team is 26 or younger). They play hard, have a good coach, and have one of the most efficient shot distributions in the league. Nerlens Noel is already a special defender, and he should continue to anchor an above-average defense. This could be the year Philadelphia is finally respectable.
But everyone they're bringing back is 26 or younger (heck, the whole team is 26 or younger). They play hard, have a good coach, and have one of the most efficient shot distributions in the league. Nerlens Noel is already a special defender, and he should continue to anchor an above-average defense. This could be the year Philadelphia is finally respectable.
5. Marcus Smart will emerge as the best player from the 2014 draft.
To be fair, Smart already held this title last year. He led all players in his draft class in Win Shares, Box Plus/Minus, VORP, and was second in Real Plus/Minus. He's already a terrific defender, and has shown promise as a playmaker. Wiggins and Parker are still probably a year away from being above average players, and no one else has quite the upside that Smart does.
Boston projects to be one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference, but doubters point to their lack of top end talent as a reason to be skeptical. Smart has a chance to become the face of the franchise that will lift the team's perception beyond that of a group of overachieving role players.
6. Miami will almost miss the playoffs.
Miami is a trendy pick to be Cleveland's biggest threat in the East. Their starting lineup has a top ten player at each position, and they finally have a respectable collection of bench players. However, this team has a lot of question marks.
Time isn't very kind to shooting guards, particularly ones without three-point range. Don't let Dwyane Wade's 21.4 PER fool you, it's almost entirely a function of his extremely high usage rate. His true shooting percentage fell 50 points and was below league average for the first time since his rookie year. All of his defensive metrics point to him being a negative on that end, and then there's the fact that he hasn't played 70 games in five years. Meanwhile, both Luol Deng and Chris Bosh each turned 30 and have injury concerns of their own. And then there's Hassan Whiteside.
To be fair, Smart already held this title last year. He led all players in his draft class in Win Shares, Box Plus/Minus, VORP, and was second in Real Plus/Minus. He's already a terrific defender, and has shown promise as a playmaker. Wiggins and Parker are still probably a year away from being above average players, and no one else has quite the upside that Smart does.
Boston projects to be one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference, but doubters point to their lack of top end talent as a reason to be skeptical. Smart has a chance to become the face of the franchise that will lift the team's perception beyond that of a group of overachieving role players.
6. Miami will almost miss the playoffs.
Miami is a trendy pick to be Cleveland's biggest threat in the East. Their starting lineup has a top ten player at each position, and they finally have a respectable collection of bench players. However, this team has a lot of question marks.
Time isn't very kind to shooting guards, particularly ones without three-point range. Don't let Dwyane Wade's 21.4 PER fool you, it's almost entirely a function of his extremely high usage rate. His true shooting percentage fell 50 points and was below league average for the first time since his rookie year. All of his defensive metrics point to him being a negative on that end, and then there's the fact that he hasn't played 70 games in five years. Meanwhile, both Luol Deng and Chris Bosh each turned 30 and have injury concerns of their own. And then there's Hassan Whiteside.
All of this adds up to a rocky regular season. If they can be healthy come playoff time and figure out their fit issues, they could be dangerous. But I'm not counting on it.
7. New Orleans will (still) win 50 games.
This wouldn't have been bold at all a few weeks ago, but with injuries shelving five rotation players, along with the minutes restriction placed on Jrue Holiday, it now seems implausible. While still unlikely, it shouldn't be surprising if the Pelicans finish with 50 wins.
The general rule of thumb is that if you finish in the top ten in offensive and defensive efficiency, you are a 50 win team. Last year, New Orleans was 8th in offense, and there's no reason to expect them to get worse on that end under Alvin Gentry. With the hiring of Darren Erman, and with the talented rim protectors on the roster, it's reasonable to expect them to be a top ten defense as well, even with the injuries. The bottom line is this: for the last ten years, we've penciled in LeBron's teams for 50 wins, regardless of his teammates. That's where Anthony Davis is now.
*Something I haven't heard anybody talk about: remember the Houston Astros? A lot of the same things that are being said about the 76ers were said about the Astros. They too embraced losing as a strategy for building a sustainable winning organization. After three years of being the worst team in baseball, and one year of quasi-respectability, they are now one of the best young teams in the sport. If Philadelphia is bad again, I don't think it's yet an indictment on their process.
7. New Orleans will (still) win 50 games.
This wouldn't have been bold at all a few weeks ago, but with injuries shelving five rotation players, along with the minutes restriction placed on Jrue Holiday, it now seems implausible. While still unlikely, it shouldn't be surprising if the Pelicans finish with 50 wins.
The general rule of thumb is that if you finish in the top ten in offensive and defensive efficiency, you are a 50 win team. Last year, New Orleans was 8th in offense, and there's no reason to expect them to get worse on that end under Alvin Gentry. With the hiring of Darren Erman, and with the talented rim protectors on the roster, it's reasonable to expect them to be a top ten defense as well, even with the injuries. The bottom line is this: for the last ten years, we've penciled in LeBron's teams for 50 wins, regardless of his teammates. That's where Anthony Davis is now.
*Something I haven't heard anybody talk about: remember the Houston Astros? A lot of the same things that are being said about the 76ers were said about the Astros. They too embraced losing as a strategy for building a sustainable winning organization. After three years of being the worst team in baseball, and one year of quasi-respectability, they are now one of the best young teams in the sport. If Philadelphia is bad again, I don't think it's yet an indictment on their process.
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