On The Backburner: Evaluating Players (cont'd)

Hello, it is great to be back for another season of Pro Basket-blog!

So, the Becker-Gorman NBA Evaluation Model is going public. From here on I will refer to it as BGEM (pronounced Bee-Gem); sounds catchy enough. Before we release the initial BGEM player ratings, I want to discuss my definition of each tier. As Matt Becker stated, they are subjective rankings. If you want statistical evaluations, there are plenty of smarter, more disciplined analysts that can provide you statistical breakdowns. What’s important, though, is being able to dissect the information we provide to tell a larger story. Throughout the year, I will be using the composite BGEM rankings to predict which teams I believe have the best chance to win a title. I am sure Matt has many good ideas on how to interpret the information as well. Ultimately, my classification of each tier falls closely in line with Becker’s, but to give you insight to my unique thought process, here are my definitions of the five tiers.

Tier One – Alpha Males

“1s” are the best players on a theoretical championship caliber team. Having a 1 on your team should elevate your squad to the playoffs, regardless of the remaining roster. These players exhibit greatness and generally have dominant genes. This is a select group. Essentially every championship team except the 2004 Pistons has had a 1 on their roster (Boston’s recent championship teams are unique, See: “2s”).

Tier Two – Robins

“2s” are the second best players on a theoretical championship caliber team. Many “2s” are all-stars that have struggled to reach the pinnacle, such as T-Mac in his prime. Scottie Pippen is the prototype 2. Having multiple 2s on your squad can lead to deep runs in the playoffs, and even championships, such as the recent Celtics team consisting of Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett (two 2s), & Rajon Rondo and Ray Allen (two 3s).

Tier Three – Core players

“3s” are the third best players on a theoretical championship caliber team. Good players may find themselves in and out of “3” status throughout their career. In recent championship memory, think of Manu Ginobili as the ultimate 3. These players are borderline all-stars. This is the tier where many front offices may overvalue 3s as 2s, and proceed to overpay that player, such as Luol Deng in 2007. Having multiple 3s is usually a fine recipe for a successful ball-club.

Tier Four – Better than role player

“4s” are the fourth best players on a theoretical championship caliber team. They shine on bad teams, but are not difference makers on quality teams. Players in this tier may be your sixth man, and your fans may consider your 4 a fan favorite, someone they believe is undervalued by other squads. They may be young talents ready to take the next step into category 3, such as OJ Mayo. This is a very difficult tier to judge, and players frequently jump in and out of 4 status for performance, injury, and age concerns.

Tier Five – A guy

“5s” are the fifth best players on a theoretical championship caliber team. Analysis of this tier is extremely subjective. This may be a solid veteran looking to join forces with higher tier players, like Shane Battier with the Miami Heat. Players in this category may be the starter on your team that does not look for his shot on offense. Consider a player like Taj Gibson, an above-average role player, in the 5 category. This tier has the most company.

Stay tuned for the initial BGEM ratings, with analysis to follow.

Shawn, Pro Basket-blog contributor
Follow my NBA thoughts on twitter: @SFGore