Going Upstairs: Southeast Division Preview

This is the third of six division previews that I’ll be posting before the season starts. I understand that divisions themselves are mostly meaningless, but it offers a convenient way to split up my preview series. Below I’ve listed teams by predicted order of finish, alongside their projected playoff seed in their conference.

If you were going to create a team of players from each division and have a tournament, the Southeast would likely take home the crown. Even with Charlotte, who would have a hard time placing a player on any division’s All-Star team. The NBA’s two best players, LeBron James and Dwight Howard, reside here, and as a result their teams are perennial contenders. Atlanta brings three All-Star level players to the table, and Washington has assembled a host of young talent, one in particular who is a star in the making.

Miami Heat (1)

Sorry, I couldn't resist

Projected Rotation

PG – Mario Chalmers

SG – Dwyane Wade

SF – LeBron James

PF – Chris Bosh

C – Joel Anthony

F/C – Udonis Haslem

F – Shane Battier

G/F – Mike Miller

G/F – James Jones

G – Norris Cole

BGEM Players (Tier)

LeBron James (1)

Dwyane Wade (1)

Chris Bosh (3)

Analysis

With everything that went wrong with the Heat last season, they were two wins away from an NBA championship. And despite everything that happened, they are still the favorite. I expect them to cruise through the regular season and finish with the league’s best record, and eventually winning the title.

Player to Watch

Dwyane Wade – Many thought that his prime would be shortened due to his propensity to get injured and the sometimes reckless way he attacks the basket. With LeBron and Bosh arriving on the scene though, Wade has an opportunity to prolong his career. He can now pick his spots on offense, while placing more of his attention on the defensive end. If his regular season numbers take a dip, don’t be surprised.

Atlanta Hawks (4)

Tracy McGrady joins Johnson, Hinrich, and Pachulia on the
team with the most "looks like they're either half-asleep or
really high" guys

Projected Rotation

PG – Jeff Teague

SG – Joe Johnson

SF – Marvin Williams

PF – Josh Smith

C – Al Horford

G – Kirk Hinrich

C – Zaza Pachulia

G/F – Tracy McGrady

F – Vladimir Radmanavic

BGEM Players (Tiers)

Al Horford (3)

Joe Johnson (3)

Josh Smith (4)

Analysis

This is the same Hawks team that we’ve been looking at for three years now, one that will have a strong regular season, win its first round series, and lose to a superior team. They are the poster child for what happens when you are bad for a while, accumulate high draft picks, and top out as a quasi-contender before fading back into oblivion. Minnesota, Indiana, and Memphis are all somewhere along the path that Atlanta has now paved, and should take note of their potential fate.

Player to Watch

Joe Johnson – It’s been well documented how rapidly shooting guards decline once they leave their 20’s, and Johnson turned 30 in June. His production already began declining last year, after signing a $124 million dollar deal. The race begins to see which two-guard will become overpaid faster, Johnson or Kobe Bryant (although the race might already be over).

Orlando Magic (5)

Now that he's wearing blue, he'll look even more like
Genie from Aladdin

Projected Rotation

PG – Jameer Nelson

SG – Jason Richardson

SF – Hedo Turkoglu

PF – Ryan Anderson

C – Dwight Howard

F – Glen Davis

G – J.J. Redick

G/F – Quentin Richardson

G – Chris Duhon

BGEM Players (Tier)

Dwight Howard (1)

Jameer Nelson (5)

Analysis

Obviously both the short-term and long-term fortunes of the Magic rest in the future of Dwight Howard. Orlando didn’t help themselves this offseason by signing two more bad long-term contracts in Jason Richardson and Glen Davis, which is only going to make the rebuilding process even more painful if he leaves. In the meantime though, one has to wonder how well they’ll play as they await the decisions of Howard and the front office. If Dwight plays motivated, the Magic are still a top five team in the East.

Player to Watch

Ryan Anderson – Playing next to Howard is the best possible scenario for Anderson. He is a dead-eye shooter from long range and is extremely efficient on the offensive end, and is also an underrated rebounder. But it’s Anderson’s pedestrian defense that looks so good next to Howard, simply because of how much Dwight’s presence covers up the weaknesses of every other defender. If the big man gets traded, Anderson’s effectiveness drops considerably and he is merely and average player.

Washington Wizards

If he really wants to be like DRose, he should leak that he
cheated on his SATs

Projected Rotation

PG – John Wall

SG – Nick Young

SF – Rashard Lewis

PF – Andray Blatche

C – JaVale McGee

G – Jordan Crawford

F/C – Trevor Booker

F – Chris Singleton

F – Jan Vesley

G – Roger Mason

BGEM Players (Tier)

John Wall (4)

Analysis

There’s quite a bit of talent on the roster, but what’s yet to be seen is how it’ll all fit together. The shooting guards on the roster like to shoot, and the frontline is really undisciplined. But another year of playing together should result in some improvement, keeping them out of the Eastern Conference cellar.

Player to Watch

John Wall – An obvious breakout candidate, Wall is a beacon of the light for the Washington franchise. His elite athleticism puts him in a class with Derrick Rose and Russell Westbrook, and he should follow the same trajectory. That means All-Star consideration this season as well as giving his team a shot at the postseason.

Charlotte Bobcats

Wait, didn't you live with Larry David once? And
are you from Louisiana?

Projected Rotation

PG – D.J. Augustin

SG – Gerald Henderson

SF – Corey Maggette

PF – Tyrus Thomas

C – Boris Diaw

G/F – Reggie Williams

F – D.J. White

G – Kemba Walker

F/C – Bismack Biyombo

BGEM Players (Tier)

Corey Maggette (5)

Analysis

Despite getting two picks in a poor draft class, the Bobcats look like they are finally on the right track, thanks in large part to new GM Rick Cho. Rather than hand out long-term contracts to bad players, they are shedding salary and adding young players. However, it’ll likely take at least another two years before they are a playoff team again. As a Bulls fan though, I’m hoping the rebuilding process takes a lot longer (Chicago owns their unprotected 2016 1^st round draft pick).

Player to Watch

Tyrus Thomas – Already in his sixth season, fans have been waiting for him to finally have a breakout season. But if you look closely, you’ll see that Thomas has increased his PER every season since he was drafted while actually seeing his minutes decrease over the last three years. He has a chance to win a starting job this year, and if he does and can maintain his above-average PER, he’ll be worth the $7 million dollars Charlotte is paying him.