Going Upstairs: Staying Ahead of the Curve

One of the most enjoyable things I like to spend my time doing (I know, my life is pathetic) is finding the next "it" team. This is a team that breaks out of the lottery and into basketball relevance, usually due in large part to a group of young players that finally gel. The following season they become everyone's darling team, and a trendy sleeper pick to win their respective conference. Last year it was Oklahoma City, the year before that it was Portland, and the year before that it was New Orleans. (A year before that? Chicago.)



The formula for finding this team is simple: A young, budding superstar entering his third year in the NBA with a young side kick, surrounded by other young players with varying degrees of talent. Key point: The team must be young. Their youth is what makes fans drool at their unlimited potential and causes experts to predict anywhere between 10 and 38 championships in the near future. Not coincidentally, the franchise player of the three aforementioned "it" teams each were Rookie of the Year award recipients. In fact, besides Emeka Okafor, this rule has proven true for every ROY since 2002, proving that (a) the player must be a legitimate franchise player and (b) the team around him must not be the Bobcats*. This gives us some insight as to who the next breakout team might be.

So which current player is entering his third season in the league, is surrounded by a cast of young talent, and once held the Rookie of the Year title? You guessed it: Derrick Rose. Of course, this should come as no surprise. The Bulls' high profile summer already has people talking Eastern Conference Finals in 2011 and perhaps the team with the best shot at knocking off the Miami Heat. We don't need a formula to tell us that Chicago is a 50-win team, but it's nice to know that they still could have been without the addition of Boozer and company.

But what about 2012? I know we haven't even started training camp for the 2011 season, but remember that I'm trying to stay ahead of the curve here. Our first clue would point us in the direction of Tyreke Evans and the Sacramento Kings. Unlike Okafor, Evans showed flashes of dominance last year and did not win the award by default. He is also surrounded by a lot of good young talent including, but not limited to, DeMarcus Cousins, Jason Thompson, and Omri Casspi. It's possible that they could make some noise this year, but the more likely scenario is that the Kings become your 2011-2012 "hot young team that's loaded with talented players". I should also note that the one unique factor that this team has is the number of head-cases on the roster, which could prove detrimental to their "it" team chances.

Just for fun, let's look at the 2013 candidates (and their respective rookies):

Washington (John Wall) - Probably your most likely team, given that Wall has the highest probability of being a superstar. JaVale McGee and Andray Blatche both have a chance at becoming pretty good players, however Gilbert Arenas' killer contract could handcuff this team for a long time.

Philadelphia (Evan Turner) - My personal favorite because they've already been to the playoffs in recent years. Even if Andre Igoudala gets moved, Turner will be surrounded by youngsters Jrue Holiday, Marreese Speights, and Thaddeus Young. Elton Brand's contract will be a valuable trade chip in 2013.

New Jersey (Derrick Favors) - The long shot, because it will take Favors more than three years to develop. But Brook Lopez and Devin Harris have already established themselves and they will have some cap space to play with.

LA Clippers (Blake Griffin) - The dark horse. They are eligible because Griffin will be considered a rookie this season, and he's going to be one of the favorites to win Rookie of the Year. However, a possible early playoff appearance will disqualify them.

You are no longer considered smart if you can predict that the Thunder will be the West's second seed. Rather, it is more of an accomplishment to foresee what they were able to do last year, or even be able to predict two years down the line when a team will break through. And in a league where one star can make such a difference, making these predictions has never been easier.



*To be fair, the Bobcats were an expansion team that season, so let's disqualify Okafor. His runner-up? Ben Gordon, who was part of the Chicago "it" team in his third season. Don't you love when your own theories come true?