Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Going Upstairs: Carmelo

All the latest news surrounding the league pertains to Carmelo Anthony supposedly asking to be traded from the Nuggets. Speculation is starting to surface as to where he would like to go and which teams are the front-runners.

Of course, much of this speculation has him headed to the Big Apple, and to no surprise, the New York media is behind most of it. Both Michael Kay of ESPN Radio in New York and the NY Post are reporting stories of Anthony's interest in joining the Knicks. Let's remember, these were the same guys, along with Chris Sheridan, that fueled the LeBron James-to-New York fire and made it seem as if they were the clear favorites to land him. As it turned out, LeBron barely considered New York an option.



Let me also quote a story from Real GM about what the Knicks are willing to offer for the league's third leading scorer:

The Knicks are reportedly willing to trade Danilo Gallinari as the centerpiece of a package to acquire Carmelo Anthony.

During his Tuesday show on ESPN Radio in New York, Michael Kay cited sources in reporting that the Knicks will offer Gallinari, a future first-round pick and Eddy Curry in a bid to acquire Carmelo Anthony from Denver.

Curry's contract would be included to make the trade work under the salary cap.

The next first-round pick the Knicks can trade is their 2014 selection.

Umm, you're going to land a top ten player with a package centered around Danilo Gallinari and a first round pick in 2014? It's not just the New York media that thinks they live in the center of the universe, it's the organization too. Not only were they dumb enough to give away their next three draft picks in their fruitless effort to land LeBron James or Dwyane Wade this summer, but they're going to convince the Nuggets to take a pick four years from now for their best player? And then convince Carmelo that they can field a competitive team without a single first round pick for the next five years? Child, please.

If the report is true that New York and Orlando top Carmelo's short list of teams he'd like to go to, there’s not much Denver can do to get equal value. The Magic don't have much in terms of young (or cheap) assets to offer. In fact, almost everyone on their team is overpaid. It depends on what Denver would be trying to do in a trade, but a package of Jameer Nelson, J.J. Redick, and Brandon Bass is not good enough for your best player. But that's probably better than what the Knicks can offer.

Since Denver will almost surely trade Carmelo out of the conference, that leaves only New Jersey, Washington, Atlanta, and Chicago as the remaining potential suitors. I have no idea which, if any, of these destinations appeal to him, but let's break down what each team could potentially offer:

New Jersey: Their package would presumably be centered around rookie Derrick Favors, which is a great starting point. Along with draft picks, Denver would probably ask for Terrence Williams or possibly Brook Lopez. The Nets are also about $4 million under the salary cap, so they wouldn't have to send back any big contracts to match salary. Would this be a rebuilding plan? Yes. Would it be a bad place to start? No.

Washington: John Wall isn't getting traded, so this would have to be centered around multiple young players, including Andray Blatche, JaVale McGee, and Nick Young. Kirk Hinrich must be included to match salaries. This seems like a great fit for Anthony, but a bad fit for the Nuggets.

Atlanta: When you are building a team in the NBA, there are two ways to do it: either you draft a superstar and build around him (like the Spurs with Duncan), or you build up young assets and then trade for one (like the Heat with Shaq). Assuming they are on his list (and I'm just making this up), Atlanta is in perfect position to make a play for Carmelo Anthony, if they have the balls to do it. Al Horford would be the best centerpiece any of these teams could offer in a trade, as he is already an All-Star player. Horford, Marvin Williams, and Jamal Crawford's $10 million expiring deal would be the best offer Denver gets. This seems more like a fantasy than a reality though.

Chicago: It has been well documented that Deng and Noah would be the consensus offer, as well as well debated among Bulls fans. It's not exactly full value for Carmelo, in fact not even close, but there's probably a better chance the Bulls are on Carmelo's list than any of the other three here.

So where will he end up? Ultimately, I think he stays in Denver. That’s what players usually do, at least they used to. If we see Carmelo Anthony change teams, then you have to think that what LeBron James did has become a new trend that will change the landscape of the league. It’s hard to imagine that a player who has been pretty successful with his current team would change teams for no apparent reason other than wanting to play with his friends. I would love to see Melo put on a Bulls jersey this fall, but for the good of the league, we should all hope he remains in baby blue.

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