I know this is a day late (Boston beat Orlando yesterday), but I wanted to weigh in on the Conference Finals. To no one's surprise, the Lakers and Magic are two of the last four remaining. But not many expected Boston and Phoenix to be a part of the mix. I'm going to break down each series with my very own version of "What could happen? What might happen? What will happen?"
(Basically this is how it works. "What could happen?" is a long-shot scenario. Think J.P. from Angels in the Outfield. "What might happen?" tells of a plausible situation which may or may not be contrary to popular opinion. "What will happen?" gives my official prediction. We'll see how well this works.)
Boston vs. Orlando
What could happen?
This is the same Boston team, maybe better, that we saw two years ago when they beat the Lakers in the Finals. People are making a big deal about Cleveland losing in the second round, but isn't it possible that the Celtics were, in fact, the better team? Even though the "Big Three" don't have the same offensive punch, their team defense looked superb and the supporting cast is much better than two years ago. You say that a team can't win a title with Rajon Rondo as it's best player, but say this is another team like the Detroit of the mid-00's with four really good players, a strong bench, and Rasheed Wallace (okay, I know). If this is the case, I could see Boston, who does match up well with Orlando mind you, beating the Magic pretty decisively in five or six games.
What might happen?
Alright, maybe it was a stretch saying the 2010 Celtics were as good as 2008 Celtics, or even the 2005 Pistons. But I think we have to agree that they are better than we thought. Here are some reasons they might beat Orlando:
- They have some bigs to take (and draw) fouls on Dwight Howard.
- Rashard Lewis will be guarding Kevin Garnett, who torched Antawn Jamison, a guy of similar stature and defensive prowess.
- Their team defense can keep Vince Carter out of the middle and force him to shoot one-footed, off-balance three pointers that he loves so much.
- Boston defends the three about as good as anyone in the league
It's conceivable that the Celtics will take this series to a seventh game, and possibly win. The interesting thing about this series is that the Magic present a bad match-up for Rajon Rondo, who is the reason the Celtics made it this far. But Rondo has shown the maturity to enhance the production of his teammates when he is neutralized, therefore still having the same impact without the gaudy numbers.
What will happen?
Ultimately, Orlando is too good and too deep for me to see them losing. You can't ignore how dominant they have been in rolling through the playoffs thus far. And these games haven't been close. What makes the Magic so good is that they are a match-up nightmare. In the Charlotte series, the Bobcats tried to neutralize Howard with their trio of defensive centers and were successful(he had more fouls than field goals and never played 30 minutes), but were still swept because of their guard play. In the Atlanta series, Howard was able to dominate the undersized Hawks and missed five shots in THE ENTIRE SERIES. They just seem to have an answer for anything and everything. And if all else fails, they kill you with the three, with seven rotation players shooting over 36%. I say Orlando in six. (Note: I wrote this before yesterday's game, which does change my opinion slightly. I'll say Orlando in seven, but I now think it's a toss-up.)
Phoenix vs. LA Lakers
What could happen?
These two teams play differing styles, and if you're going to beat a superior team, you don't do it playing their game. That's why Phoenix was the worst possible match-up for this Lakers team, who struggled against the Thunder when they went small, and why Phoenix could win this series in six. The big, brawny Lakers team is no match for the fast paced Suns, who combined with a frenzied crowd will run them out of the gym. Of course, this is what every Suns fan hopes is true. But can Derek Fisher really keep up with Steve Nash? And will Gasol and Bynum be able to run the floor? How does Ron Artest react?
What might happen?
Before the season (and in an earlier post) I declared that the Lakers were the most versatile team in the NBA. While they may not be as deep as previously thought, guys like Lamar Odom and Jordan Farmar give this team the ability to play many different styles. And Phil Jackson wouldn't be the league's all-time winningest coach if he couldn't make adjustments. I fear that the Los Angeles might just be too good and too motivated (did you see that Utah series?) to lose. The Lakers present some match-up problems too. Even though Phoenix was the best 3-point shooting team in the league, LA was the best at defending it. Jason Richardson's field goal percentage in wins is 12% higher, and he averages six more points per game. But Kobe Bryant will be guarding him. And it's not like the Lakers are a slow-it-down team, they rank in the middle of the pack in Pace Factor. I think it's very possible that LA wins in five.
What will happen?
This will be a good series. I really hope so. I could see things going back and forth, each coach making adjustments each game. I'm going to sit back and enjoy the series, which starts tonight on TNT, and hope that Phoenix can win. I don't think Steve Nash will let this team lose very easily, so it should be competitive. However, Lakers in 7.
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