Here's the thing. I don't see anybody beating the Lakers. There are other teams that might be able to beat them, but nobody beats a healthy L.A. team. But I'm going to break down the contenders anyways.
I see eight contenders in the NBA today, with four serious contenders. I'll define a contender as a team that could win the NBA championship. So, in my estimation there are eight teams that I think have a chance of winning the title. I left out Atlanta and Portland because, can you honestly see either of these teams beating at least three of the other eight teams on this list? Me neither.
Here's the contenders, from least to most:
Utah - This team is the biggest longshot, but also probably the most overlooked of the group. They've been getting production from Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer all season, and I count on Jerry Sloan making the rest of the pieces fit. Williams' potential breakout season is why I like them, but the rest of the team is why I don't.
Dallas - I decided that Dirk Nowitzki is the most unappreciated player from the last decade. If the Mavs had beaten the Heat in the 2006 Finals, I think that he would be thought of the way Dwyane Wade is now (of course, maybe that's why Wade won and Nowitzki lost. But you can blame the refs for that one). What does that have to do with this year's team? Well, I'm still not convinced that Dirk can't be the best player on a championship team, and this team around him is pretty good this year.
Orlando - I actually don't like this team very much in terms of championship potential. Here's why: I was watching them play the Celtics tonight. They had the ball, game tied, with 22 seconds left. They called time-out as they crossed half court and I realized, I had no idea who would get the ball for the last shot. Rashard Lewis ended up winning the game, but I think this team gets by on sheer talent, and can't win the title as currently constructed.
San Antonio - Tim Duncan is quietly having a great season, but the parts around him have been so abysmal that it's no wonder they aren't meeting preseason expectations. Still, this team will only improve as the season goes along and is going to be a tough out in the West. What keeps them from being a serious contender in my eyes is Ginobili's sudden collapse.
Denver - If they played any defense I'd like them better. But this is still a very talented team headlined by one of the five best players in the league and a savvy veteran point guard. Melo is going to have to be the best player on the court for them to beat L.A. or Cleveland, but you can't rule that out the way he's played this season.
Cleveland - I had a hard time putting them below Boston because of LeBron. What made the difference, honestly, is that I think Boston has a better chance to beat the Lakers. One wild card could be a potential deadline deal for Cleveland that could give them a legitimate second option. As the team is now, I think they CAN win the title, I just don't like their lack of options.
Boston - I feel like this team is aging before our eyes, yet they remain serious contenders. The play of Rondo and Perkins has made up for any decline by the Big Three, and they play defense well enough (when Garnett is healthy) that they're still probably the best team in the East. It will be interesting to see if they add another piece either by trade or free agent signing.
L.A. Lakers - Clearly the class of the league. Their combination of size, versatility, coaching, best player makes them unbeatable in my eyes when motivated and healthy. They better hope that Kobe's injuries don't linger into the postseason and become a problem though, or the league becomes wide open. I'll take them over the Cavs in 6.
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